UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 23 July 2026

Besiktas v Midtjylland Correct Score Prediction

Besiktas

2-1

Midtjylland

Kick-off: 18:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds8.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultBesiktas win 2.00BTTSYes 1.70O/UOver 2.5 1.83FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginBesiktas by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.2%

Expected goals1.52 – 1.16Besiktas / Midtjylland

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.1%

#21-09.4%

#32-19.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.8%	6.9%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
1	9.4%	13.1%	7.0%	2.7%	0.8%
2	7.9%	9.2%	5.3%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.0%	4.7%	2.7%	1.1%	0.3%
4	1.5%	1.8%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.2%

Model fair odds10.87

Recorded CS odds8.00

Bookmaker implied12.5%

Model-market gap-3.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-26.4%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published22 Jul 2026 · 19:01 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.00View odds

Draw3.30View odds

Away3.25View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.70View odds

Both teams to score — No2.05View odds

Over 2.51.83View odds

Under 2.51.85View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Besiktas versus Midtjylland to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy