UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification · Thursday, 23 July 2026

Dinamo Tbilisi v Zalgiris Correct Score Prediction

Dinamo Tbilisi

1-1

Zalgiris

Kick-off: 17:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.10BTTSYes 1.95O/UUnder 2.5 1.60FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-113.9%

Expected goals1.34 – 1.00Dinamo Tbilisi / Zalgiris

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.9%

#21-011.9%

#30-010.6%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.6%	8.6%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%
1	11.9%	13.9%	6.5%	2.2%	0.5%
2	8.6%	8.7%	4.3%	1.4%	0.4%
3	3.9%	3.9%	1.9%	0.6%	0.2%
4	1.3%	1.3%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate13.9%

Model fair odds7.21

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-1.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-9.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published22 Jul 2026 · 19:01 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.10View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away3.40View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.95View odds

Both teams to score — No1.75View odds

Over 2.52.25View odds

Under 2.51.60View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Dinamo Tbilisi versus Zalgiris to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy