UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification · Thursday, 23 July 2026

Flora v The New Saints Correct Score Prediction

Flora

1-2

The New Saints

Kick-off: 16:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-2

Correct score odds10.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultThe New Saints win 2.88BTTSYes 1.62O/UOver 2.5 1.73FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginThe New Saints by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-27.7%

Expected goals1.52 – 1.30Flora / The New Saints

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.8%

#22-18.9%

#31-08.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	6.7%	5.0%	2.2%	0.7%
1	8.0%	12.8%	7.7%	3.3%	1.1%
2	6.9%	8.9%	5.8%	2.5%	0.8%
3	3.5%	4.5%	3.0%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate7.7%

Model fair odds13.04

Recorded CS odds10.00

Bookmaker implied10.0%

Model-market gap-2.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-23.3%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published22 Jul 2026 · 19:01 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.25View odds

Draw3.40View odds

Away2.88View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.62View odds

Both teams to score — No2.20View odds

Over 2.51.73View odds

Under 2.52.00View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Flora versus The New Saints to finish 1-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-2

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy