Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds7.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBenfica win 1.36↗BTTSYes 1.75↗O/UOver 2.5 1.53↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginBenfica by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.8%
Expected goals0.90 – 2.21St Gallen / Benfica
Most likely scorelines
#10-210.9%
#21-110.0%
#31-29.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 8.0% | 4.4% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 4.0% |
| 2 | 1.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.8%
Model fair odds10.20
Recorded CS odds7.00
Bookmaker implied14.3%
Model-market gap-4.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-31.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects St Gallen versus Benfica to finish 1-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy