Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultFK Jablonec win 2.25↗BTTSYes 1.70↗O/UOver 2.5 1.85↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginFK Jablonec by 1 goal View odds↗
UEFA Europa Conference League Qualification · Thursday, 23 July 2026
Varazdin v FK Jablonec Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-28.8%
Expected goals1.23 – 1.44Varazdin / FK Jablonec
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.3%
#20-18.9%
#31-28.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 13.3% | 8.8% | 4.3% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.8%
Model fair odds11.31
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Varazdin versus FK Jablonec to finish 1-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy