Prediction summary
Correct score2-2
Correct score odds11.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.55↗O/UOver 2.5 1.67↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
Danish 1st Division · Friday, 24 July 2026
AaB Aalborg v Hillerod Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-26.0%
Expected goals1.62 – 1.30AaB Aalborg / Hillerod
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.8%
#22-19.2%
#31-27.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 7.3% | 12.8% | 7.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.1% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate6.0%
Model fair odds16.77
Recorded CS odds11.00
Bookmaker implied9.1%
Model-market gap-3.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-34.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects AaB Aalborg versus Hillerod to finish 2-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy