Romanian Liga 1 · Friday, 24 July 2026

Arges Pitesti v Petrolul Correct Score Prediction

Arges Pitesti

1-1

Petrolul

Kick-off: 18:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.80

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.00BTTSYes 2.00O/UUnder 2.5 1.44FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.4%

Expected goals1.25 – 0.95Arges Pitesti / Petrolul

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.4%

#21-012.7%

#30-012.4%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.4%	9.3%	5.0%	1.6%	0.4%
1	12.7%	14.4%	6.2%	2.0%	0.5%
2	8.7%	8.2%	3.9%	1.2%	0.3%
3	3.6%	3.4%	1.6%	0.5%	0.1%
4	1.1%	1.1%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.4%

Model fair odds6.95

Recorded CS odds5.80

Bookmaker implied17.2%

Model-market gap-2.9 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-16.6%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published23 Jul 2026 · 18:26 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.15View odds

Draw3.00View odds

Away3.40View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.00View odds

Both teams to score — No1.73View odds

Over 2.52.50View odds

Under 2.51.44View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Arges Pitesti versus Petrolul to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy