Polish Ekstraklasa · Friday, 24 July 2026

Pogon Szczecin v Legia Warsaw Correct Score Prediction

Pogon Szczecin

1-1

Legia Warsaw

Kick-off: 18:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.80

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.00BTTSYes 1.75O/UUnder 2.5 1.70FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.6%

Expected goals1.20 – 1.29Pogon Szczecin / Legia Warsaw

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.6%

#20-010.1%

#30-18.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.1%	8.9%	6.9%	3.0%	1.0%
1	8.2%	14.6%	8.3%	3.6%	1.1%
2	6.0%	7.7%	5.0%	2.1%	0.7%
3	2.4%	3.1%	2.0%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.6%

Model fair odds6.83

Recorded CS odds5.80

Bookmaker implied17.2%

Model-market gap-2.6 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-15.1%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published23 Jul 2026 · 18:26 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.80View odds

Draw3.00View odds

Away2.45View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No2.00View odds

Over 2.52.05View odds

Under 2.51.70View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Pogon Szczecin versus Legia Warsaw to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy