Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds13.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRosenborg win 3.90↗BTTSYes 1.40↗O/UOver 2.5 1.30↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginRosenborg by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-15.8%
Expected goals1.39 – 2.21Rosenborg / Man Utd
Most likely scorelines
#11-29.3%
#21-19.3%
#31-36.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.7% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 3.8% |
| 2 | 2.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| 3 | 1.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate5.8%
Model fair odds17.15
Recorded CS odds13.00
Bookmaker implied7.7%
Model-market gap-1.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Rosenborg versus Man Utd to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy