Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultXamax win 1.85↗BTTSYes 1.35↗O/UOver 2.5 1.30↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginXamax by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-18.9%
Expected goals2.07 – 1.53Xamax / Kriens
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.0%
#22-18.9%
#32-26.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 4.3% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 5.8% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.9%
Model fair odds11.18
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-2.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-19.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Xamax versus Kriens to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy