Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultAGF Aarhus win 2.25↗BTTSYes 1.57↗O/UOver 2.5 1.67↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginAGF Aarhus by 1 goal View odds↗
Danish Super League · Saturday, 25 July 2026
AGF Aarhus v Brondby Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-18.9%
Expected goals1.55 – 1.36AGF Aarhus / Brondby
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.5%
#22-18.9%
#31-27.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 7.4% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 3.5% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.9%
Model fair odds11.22
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects AGF Aarhus versus Brondby to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy