Polish Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 25 July 2026

Lech Poznan v Cracovia Correct Score Prediction

Lech Poznan

2-0

Cracovia

Kick-off: 18:15 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-0

Correct score odds7.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultLech Poznan win 1.44BTTSNo 1.91O/UUnder 2.5 2.05FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginLech Poznan by 2 goals View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-011.4%

Expected goals2.00 – 0.87Lech Poznan / Cracovia

Most likely scorelines

#12-011.4%

#21-011.0%

#31-110.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.1%	4.5%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
1	11.0%	10.2%	4.3%	1.2%	0.3%
2	11.4%	9.9%	4.3%	1.2%	0.3%
3	7.6%	6.6%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
4	3.8%	3.3%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate11.4%

Model fair odds8.80

Recorded CS odds7.00

Bookmaker implied14.3%

Model-market gap-2.9 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-20.5%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published24 Jul 2026 · 19:17 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.44View odds

Draw4.20View odds

Away6.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.83View odds

Both teams to score — No1.91View odds

Over 2.51.70View odds

Under 2.52.05View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Lech Poznan versus Cracovia to finish 2-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy