Prediction summary
Correct score2-1
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultLuzern win 2.00↗BTTSYes 1.40↗O/UOver 2.5 1.40↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginLuzern by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-19.0%
Expected goals1.90 – 1.50Luzern / Thun
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.8%
#22-19.0%
#31-27.1%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 5.2% | 10.8% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 3.4% | 1.3% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.0%
Model fair odds11.05
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-2.1 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-18.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Luzern versus Thun to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy