Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultInverness win 1.53↗BTTSYes 1.65↗O/UOver 2.5 1.55↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginInverness by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.9%
Expected goals1.06 – 2.04Morton / Inverness
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.5%
#21-29.9%
#30-29.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 6.4% | 3.3% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 6.8% | 3.4% |
| 2 | 2.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.9%
Model fair odds10.06
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-3.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-25.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Morton versus Inverness to finish 1-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy