Serbian Super Liga · Saturday, 25 July 2026

OFK Belgrade v Radnik Surdulica Correct Score Prediction

OFK Belgrade

2-1

Radnik Surdulica

Kick-off: 18:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds9.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultOFK Belgrade win 2.20BTTSYes 1.73O/UOver 2.5 1.91FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginOFK Belgrade by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-18.8%

Expected goals1.42 – 1.19OFK Belgrade / Radnik Surdulica

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.1%

#20-09.0%

#32-18.8%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.0%	7.1%	5.2%	2.1%	0.6%
1	8.7%	14.1%	7.4%	2.9%	0.9%
2	7.4%	8.8%	5.3%	2.1%	0.6%
3	3.5%	4.2%	2.5%	1.0%	0.3%
4	1.2%	1.5%	0.9%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate8.8%

Model fair odds11.34

Recorded CS odds9.00

Bookmaker implied11.1%

Model-market gap-2.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-20.6%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published24 Jul 2026 · 19:17 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.20View odds

Draw3.00View odds

Away3.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.73View odds

Both teams to score — No2.00View odds

Over 2.51.91View odds

Under 2.51.80View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects OFK Belgrade versus Radnik Surdulica to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy