Argentinian Primera Nacional · Saturday, 25 July 2026

Tristan Suarez v Chacarita Correct Score Prediction

Tristan Suarez

2-1

Chacarita

Kick-off: 18:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds9.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultTristan Suarez win 2.00BTTSYes 2.45O/UOver 2.5 3.00FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginTristan Suarez by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-17.7%

Expected goals1.21 – 0.75Tristan Suarez / Chacarita

Most likely scorelines

#11-015.9%

#20-015.4%

#31-114.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.4%	9.4%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%
1	15.9%	14.0%	4.8%	1.2%	0.2%
2	10.3%	7.7%	2.9%	0.7%	0.1%
3	4.1%	3.1%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.2%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate7.7%

Model fair odds12.99

Recorded CS odds9.00

Bookmaker implied11.1%

Model-market gap-3.4 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-30.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published24 Jul 2026 · 19:17 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.00View odds

Draw2.80View odds

Away4.20View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.45View odds

Both teams to score — No1.50View odds

Over 2.53.00View odds

Under 2.51.35View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Tristan Suarez versus Chacarita to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy