Prediction summary
Correct score2-3
Correct score odds21.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBrage win 2.80↗BTTSYes 1.44↗O/UOver 2.5 1.57↗FT goals5 goals View odds↗Winning marginBrage by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-33.0%
Expected goals1.64 – 1.42Varnamo / Brage
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.7%
#22-18.9%
#31-27.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate3.0%
Model fair odds33.29
Recorded CS odds21.00
Bookmaker implied4.8%
Model-market gap-1.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-36.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-3
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Varnamo versus Brage to finish 2-3. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-3
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy