Brazilian Serie A · Sunday, 26 July 2026

Bahia v Corinthians Correct Score Prediction

Bahia

2-1

Corinthians

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds8.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultBahia win 2.15BTTSYes 1.75O/UOver 2.5 2.00FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginBahia by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-18.9%

Expected goals1.43 – 1.12Bahia / Corinthians

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.1%

#21-09.6%

#30-09.5%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.5%	7.2%	4.9%	1.8%	0.5%
1	9.6%	14.1%	7.0%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.0%	8.9%	5.0%	1.9%	0.5%
3	3.8%	4.2%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%
4	1.4%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate8.9%

Model fair odds11.20

Recorded CS odds8.50

Bookmaker implied11.8%

Model-market gap-2.8 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-24.1%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published25 Jul 2026 · 19:24 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.15View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away3.25View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No2.00View odds

Over 2.52.00View odds

Under 2.51.75View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Bahia versus Corinthians to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy