Prediction summary
Correct score3-2
Correct score odds15.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBrann win 1.75↗BTTSYes 1.44↗O/UOver 2.5 1.40↗FT goals5 goals View odds↗Winning marginBrann by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-24.3%
Expected goals2.05 – 1.32Brann / Valerenga
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.5%
#22-19.5%
#32-07.2%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.5% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate4.3%
Model fair odds23.22
Recorded CS odds15.00
Bookmaker implied6.7%
Model-market gap-2.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-35.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Brann versus Valerenga to finish 3-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy