Argentinian Primera Nacional · Sunday, 26 July 2026

Deportivo Moron v Ferro Carril Oeste Correct Score Prediction

Deportivo Moron

1-1

Ferro Carril Oeste

Kick-off: 18:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.62BTTSYes 2.30O/UUnder 2.5 1.36FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-115.4%

Expected goals1.14 – 0.85Deportivo Moron / Ferro Carril Oeste

Most likely scorelines

#10-015.8%

#21-115.4%

#31-013.5%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.8%	9.6%	5.0%	1.4%	0.3%
1	13.5%	15.4%	5.6%	1.6%	0.3%
2	8.8%	7.5%	3.2%	0.9%	0.2%
3	3.3%	2.8%	1.2%	0.3%	0.1%
4	1.0%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate15.4%

Model fair odds6.51

Recorded CS odds5.50

Bookmaker implied18.2%

Model-market gap-2.8 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-15.5%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published25 Jul 2026 · 19:24 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.25View odds

Draw2.62View odds

Away3.60View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.30View odds

Both teams to score — No1.57View odds

Over 2.52.90View odds

Under 2.51.36View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Deportivo Moron versus Ferro Carril Oeste to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy