Danish 1st Division · Sunday, 26 July 2026

Hobro v Aarhus Fremad Correct Score Prediction

Hobro

1-1

Aarhus Fremad

Kick-off: 12:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.10BTTSYes 1.62O/UUnder 2.5 1.85FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-113.9%

Expected goals1.34 – 1.34Hobro / Aarhus Fremad

Most likely scorelines

#11-113.9%

#20-08.4%

#31-28.3%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.4%	7.6%	6.1%	2.8%	0.9%
1	7.6%	13.9%	8.3%	3.7%	1.2%
2	6.1%	8.3%	5.5%	2.5%	0.8%
3	2.8%	3.7%	2.5%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.9%	1.2%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate13.9%

Model fair odds7.22

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-2.8 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-16.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published25 Jul 2026 · 19:24 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.50View odds

Draw3.10View odds

Away2.50View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.62View odds

Both teams to score — No2.15View odds

Over 2.51.83View odds

Under 2.51.85View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Hobro versus Aarhus Fremad to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy