Argentinian Primera Nacional · Sunday, 26 July 2026

Quilmes v Colegiales Correct Score Prediction

Quilmes

1-1

Colegiales

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.75BTTSYes 2.50O/UUnder 2.5 1.35FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.0%

Expected goals1.22 – 0.70Quilmes / Colegiales

Most likely scorelines

#11-016.5%

#20-016.3%

#31-114.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	16.3%	8.8%	3.6%	0.8%	0.1%
1	16.5%	14.0%	4.3%	1.0%	0.2%
2	11.0%	7.6%	2.6%	0.6%	0.1%
3	4.4%	3.1%	1.1%	0.2%	0.0%
4	1.4%	0.9%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.0%

Model fair odds7.14

Recorded CS odds6.00

Bookmaker implied16.7%

Model-market gap-2.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-16.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published25 Jul 2026 · 19:24 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.95View odds

Draw2.75View odds

Away4.60View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.50View odds

Both teams to score — No1.44View odds

Over 2.53.00View odds

Under 2.51.35View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Quilmes versus Colegiales to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy