Brazilian Serie B · Sunday, 26 July 2026

Sao Bernardo v Ceara Correct Score Prediction

Sao Bernardo

1-1

Ceara

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.80BTTSYes 2.10O/UUnder 2.5 1.44FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.9%

Expected goals1.15 – 0.98Sao Bernardo / Ceara

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.9%

#20-013.5%

#31-012.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.5%	10.2%	5.7%	1.9%	0.5%
1	12.2%	14.9%	6.5%	2.1%	0.5%
2	7.9%	7.7%	3.7%	1.2%	0.3%
3	3.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%
4	0.9%	0.8%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.9%

Model fair odds6.71

Recorded CS odds5.50

Bookmaker implied18.2%

Model-market gap-3.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-18.0%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published25 Jul 2026 · 19:24 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home2.40View odds

Draw2.80View odds

Away3.10View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.10View odds

Both teams to score — No1.67View odds

Over 2.52.60View odds

Under 2.51.44View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Sao Bernardo versus Ceara to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy