Prediction summary
Correct score2-2
Correct score odds11.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.80↗BTTSYes 1.44↗O/UOver 2.5 1.44↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-26.4%
Expected goals1.92 – 1.35Hacken / AIK
Most likely scorelines
#11-110.8%
#22-19.5%
#32-07.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 6.4% | 10.8% | 6.7% | 3.0% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 7.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 4.5% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate6.4%
Model fair odds15.66
Recorded CS odds11.00
Bookmaker implied9.1%
Model-market gap-2.7 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-29.7%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Hacken versus AIK to finish 2-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy