Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.44↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.30↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-112.5%
Expected goals1.45 – 1.64Oster / Varberg
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.5%
#21-28.9%
#32-17.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| 1 | 4.9% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% |
| 2 | 4.8% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate12.5%
Model fair odds7.99
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.9 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-18.6%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Oster versus Varberg to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy