Prediction summary
Correct score1-2
Correct score odds8.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRigas FS win 1.29↗BTTSYes 1.73↗O/UOver 2.5 1.40↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginRigas FS by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-29.4%
Expected goals0.86 – 2.46Tukums / Rigas FS
Most likely scorelines
#10-211.0%
#21-29.4%
#30-39.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 9.0% | 5.5% |
| 1 | 1.9% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 4.7% |
| 2 | 1.3% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.4%
Model fair odds10.64
Recorded CS odds8.50
Bookmaker implied11.8%
Model-market gap-2.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-20.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Tukums versus Rigas FS to finish 1-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy