UEFA Champions League Qualification · Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Dinamo Zagreb v Thun Correct Score Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb

2-1

Thun

Kick-off: 18:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds7.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDinamo Zagreb win 1.36BTTSYes 1.85O/UOver 2.5 1.62FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginDinamo Zagreb by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.8%

Expected goals2.16 – 0.84Dinamo Zagreb / Thun

Most likely scorelines

#12-011.6%

#21-010.1%

#32-19.8%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	3.5%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
1	10.1%	9.7%	3.8%	1.1%	0.2%
2	11.6%	9.8%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%
3	8.4%	7.0%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
4	4.5%	3.8%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.8%

Model fair odds10.25

Recorded CS odds7.00

Bookmaker implied14.3%

Model-market gap-4.5 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-31.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published27 Jul 2026 · 19:08 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.36View odds

Draw4.40View odds

Away7.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.85View odds

Both teams to score — No1.85View odds

Over 2.51.62View odds

Under 2.52.20View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Dinamo Zagreb versus Thun to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy