UEFA Champions League Qualification · Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Hearts v Sturm Graz Correct Score Prediction

Hearts

1-1

Sturm Graz

Kick-off: 18:45 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds7.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.50BTTSYes 1.57O/UUnder 2.5 2.20FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-112.1%

Expected goals1.80 – 1.21Hearts / Sturm Graz

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.1%

#22-19.7%

#32-08.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.3%	4.6%	3.6%	1.4%	0.4%
1	7.6%	12.1%	6.5%	2.6%	0.8%
2	8.0%	9.7%	5.8%	2.3%	0.7%
3	4.8%	5.8%	3.5%	1.4%	0.4%
4	2.2%	2.6%	1.6%	0.6%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate12.1%

Model fair odds8.29

Recorded CS odds7.00

Bookmaker implied14.3%

Model-market gap-2.2 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-15.5%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published27 Jul 2026 · 19:08 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.80View odds

Draw3.50View odds

Away3.80View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.57View odds

Both teams to score — No2.30View odds

Over 2.51.60View odds

Under 2.52.20View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Hearts versus Sturm Graz to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy