ASEAN Football Championship · Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Philippines v Myanmar Correct Score Prediction

Philippines

4-1

Myanmar

Kick-off: 10:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score4-1

Correct score odds17.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultPhilippines win 1.30BTTSYes 1.85O/UOver 2.5 1.53FT goals5 goals View oddsWinning marginPhilippines by 3 goals View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score4-14.1%

Expected goals2.28 – 0.79Philippines / Myanmar

Most likely scorelines

#12-012.1%

#21-09.7%

#32-19.5%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.6%	2.7%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
1	9.7%	9.3%	3.3%	0.9%	0.2%
2	12.1%	9.5%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
3	9.2%	7.2%	2.9%	0.8%	0.1%
4	5.2%	4.1%	1.6%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate4.1%

Model fair odds24.27

Recorded CS odds17.00

Bookmaker implied5.9%

Model-market gap-1.8 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-29.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published27 Jul 2026 · 19:08 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 4-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.30View odds

Draw4.60View odds

Away8.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.85View odds

Both teams to score — No1.80View odds

Over 2.51.53View odds

Under 2.52.30View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Philippines versus Myanmar to finish 4-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 4-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy