Prediction summary
Correct score3-2
Correct score odds15.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultPSV Eindhoven win 1.30↗BTTSYes 1.55↗O/UOver 2.5 1.30↗FT goals5 goals View odds↗Winning marginPSV Eindhoven by 1 goal View odds↗
Club Friendlies · Tuesday, 28 July 2026
PSV Eindhoven v FC Eindhoven Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-24.4%
Expected goals2.57 – 1.11PSV Eindhoven / FC Eindhoven
Most likely scorelines
#12-19.2%
#22-08.4%
#33-17.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.9% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| 2 | 8.4% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 7.2% | 7.9% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 4.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate4.4%
Model fair odds22.83
Recorded CS odds15.00
Bookmaker implied6.7%
Model-market gap-2.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-34.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects PSV Eindhoven versus FC Eindhoven to finish 3-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy