Club Friendlies · Tuesday, 28 July 2026

Real Madrid v Leganes Correct Score Prediction

Real Madrid

4-2

Leganes

Kick-off: 16:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score4-2

Correct score odds36.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultReal Madrid win 1.40BTTSYes 1.70O/UOver 2.5 1.55FT goals6 goals View oddsWinning marginReal Madrid by 2 goals View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score4-21.8%

Expected goals2.13 – 0.96Real Madrid / Leganes

Most likely scorelines

#11-110.4%

#22-010.3%

#32-19.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	3.2%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
1	8.5%	10.4%	4.5%	1.4%	0.3%
2	10.3%	9.9%	4.8%	1.5%	0.4%
3	7.3%	7.0%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%
4	3.9%	3.8%	1.8%	0.6%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate1.8%

Model fair odds55.43

Recorded CS odds36.00

Bookmaker implied2.8%

Model-market gap-1.0 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-35.1%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published27 Jul 2026 · 19:08 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 4-2

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.40View odds

Draw4.00View odds

Away6.00View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.70View odds

Both teams to score — No2.05View odds

Over 2.51.55View odds

Under 2.52.30View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Real Madrid versus Leganes to finish 4-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 4-2

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy