Club Friendlies · Wednesday, 29 July 2026

Atletico Madrid v Getafe Correct Score Prediction

Atletico Madrid

1-0

Getafe

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-0

Correct score odds7.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultAtletico Madrid win 1.95BTTSNo 2.20O/UUnder 2.5 2.05FT goals1 goal View oddsWinning marginAtletico Madrid by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-07.9%

Expected goals1.65 – 1.22Atletico Madrid / Getafe

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.9%

#22-19.4%

#31-07.9%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	5.5%	4.2%	1.7%	0.5%
1	7.9%	12.9%	7.0%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.7%	9.4%	5.7%	2.3%	0.7%
3	4.2%	5.2%	3.2%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.7%	2.1%	1.3%	0.5%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate7.9%

Model fair odds12.66

Recorded CS odds7.00

Bookmaker implied14.3%

Model-market gap-6.4 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-44.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published28 Jul 2026 · 18:36 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.95View odds

Draw3.30View odds

Away3.30View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.62View odds

Both teams to score — No2.20View odds

Over 2.51.70View odds

Under 2.52.05View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Atletico Madrid versus Getafe to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy