Club Friendlies · Wednesday, 29 July 2026

Bristol City v Newcastle Correct Score Prediction

Bristol City

1-2

Newcastle

Kick-off: 18:30 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-2

Correct score odds8.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultNewcastle win 1.70BTTSYes 1.57O/UOver 2.5 1.55FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginNewcastle by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-29.8%

Expected goals1.19 – 1.90Bristol City / Newcastle

Most likely scorelines

#11-111.4%

#21-29.8%

#30-28.2%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.7%	7.5%	8.2%	5.2%	2.5%
1	4.3%	11.4%	9.8%	6.2%	2.9%
2	3.2%	6.1%	5.8%	3.7%	1.8%
3	1.3%	2.4%	2.3%	1.5%	0.7%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.7%	0.4%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.8%

Model fair odds10.24

Recorded CS odds8.00

Bookmaker implied12.5%

Model-market gap-2.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-21.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published28 Jul 2026 · 18:36 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-2

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home4.00View odds

Draw3.60View odds

Away1.70View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.57View odds

Both teams to score — No2.30View odds

Over 2.51.55View odds

Under 2.52.30View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Bristol City versus Newcastle to finish 1-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-2

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy