UEFA Champions League Qualification · Wednesday, 29 July 2026

Lech Poznan v AGF Aarhus Correct Score Prediction

Lech Poznan

2-1

AGF Aarhus

Kick-off: 17:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score2-1

Correct score odds8.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultLech Poznan win 1.70BTTSYes 1.67O/UOver 2.5 1.73FT goals3 goals View oddsWinning marginLech Poznan by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score2-19.8%

Expected goals1.77 – 1.06Lech Poznan / AGF Aarhus

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.3%

#22-19.8%

#31-09.3%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	5.1%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%
1	9.3%	12.3%	5.9%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.3%	9.8%	5.2%	1.8%	0.5%
3	5.4%	5.8%	3.0%	1.1%	0.3%
4	2.4%	2.5%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate9.8%

Model fair odds10.21

Recorded CS odds8.00

Bookmaker implied12.5%

Model-market gap-2.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-21.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published28 Jul 2026 · 18:36 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.70View odds

Draw3.50View odds

Away4.20View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.67View odds

Both teams to score — No2.10View odds

Over 2.51.73View odds

Under 2.52.00View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Lech Poznan versus AGF Aarhus to finish 2-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 2-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy