Prediction summary
Correct score3-1
Correct score odds10.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultBenfica win 1.12↗BTTSYes 2.05↗O/UOver 2.5 1.36↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginBenfica by 2 goals View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-17.6%
Expected goals2.86 – 0.65Benfica / St Gallen
Most likely scorelines
#12-012.2%
#23-011.6%
#34-08.3%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 1 | 8.1% | 6.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 2 | 12.2% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 11.6% | 7.6% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 8.3% | 5.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate7.6%
Model fair odds13.18
Recorded CS odds10.00
Bookmaker implied10.0%
Model-market gap-2.4 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.1%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Benfica versus St Gallen to finish 3-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy