Prediction summary
Correct score2-0
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultMaccabi Tel Aviv win 1.33↗BTTSNo 1.83↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.25↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginMaccabi Tel Aviv by 2 goals View odds↗
UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 30 July 2026
Maccabi Tel Aviv v Sheriff Tiraspol Correct Score Prediction
Kick-off:
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-011.9%
Expected goals2.21 – 0.81Maccabi Tel Aviv / Sheriff Tiraspol
Most likely scorelines
#12-011.9%
#21-010.2%
#32-19.7%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.2% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.9% | 9.7% | 3.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.8% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate11.9%
Model fair odds8.38
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-3.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-22.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Maccabi Tel Aviv versus Sheriff Tiraspol to finish 2-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy