UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 30 July 2026

Midtjylland v Besiktas Correct Score Prediction

Midtjylland

1-1

Besiktas

Kick-off: 17:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.40BTTSYes 1.57O/UUnder 2.5 2.10FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-112.3%

Expected goals1.70 – 1.22Midtjylland / Besiktas

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.3%

#22-19.5%

#31-08.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.5%	5.4%	4.0%	1.6%	0.5%
1	8.0%	12.3%	6.8%	2.8%	0.9%
2	7.8%	9.5%	5.8%	2.4%	0.7%
3	4.4%	5.4%	3.3%	1.3%	0.4%
4	1.9%	2.3%	1.4%	0.6%	0.2%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate12.3%

Model fair odds8.11

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-3.1 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-19.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published29 Jul 2026 · 19:05 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.85View odds

Draw3.40View odds

Away3.40View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.57View odds

Both teams to score — No2.25View odds

Over 2.51.65View odds

Under 2.52.10View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Midtjylland versus Besiktas to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy