UEFA Europa League Qualification · Thursday, 30 July 2026

Pafos v Hajduk Split Correct Score Prediction

Pafos

1-1

Hajduk Split

Kick-off: 17:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds6.50

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 3.50BTTSYes 1.75O/UUnder 2.5 1.80FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-112.2%

Expected goals1.62 – 1.04Pafos / Hajduk Split

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.2%

#21-010.9%

#32-19.5%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.5%	6.8%	3.8%	1.3%	0.3%
1	10.9%	12.2%	6.1%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.2%	9.5%	4.9%	1.7%	0.4%
3	5.0%	5.2%	2.7%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.0%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate12.2%

Model fair odds8.16

Recorded CS odds6.50

Bookmaker implied15.4%

Model-market gap-3.1 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-20.4%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published29 Jul 2026 · 19:05 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home1.75View odds

Draw3.50View odds

Away3.80View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.75View odds

Both teams to score — No1.95View odds

Over 2.51.91View odds

Under 2.51.80View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Pafos versus Hajduk Split to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy