Paraguay Primera Division · Thursday, 30 July 2026

San Lorenzo (Par) v Guarani Correct Score Prediction

San Lorenzo (Par)

1-1

Guarani

Kick-off: 19:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-1

Correct score odds5.80

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultDraw 2.90BTTSYes 2.05O/UUnder 2.5 1.50FT goals2 goals View oddsWinning marginDraw View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-114.5%

Expected goals0.94 – 1.27San Lorenzo (Par) / Guarani

Most likely scorelines

#11-114.5%

#20-112.5%

#30-012.4%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.4%	12.5%	8.8%	3.7%	1.2%
1	8.9%	14.5%	8.3%	3.5%	1.1%
2	4.9%	6.2%	3.9%	1.7%	0.5%
3	1.5%	1.9%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate14.5%

Model fair odds6.88

Recorded CS odds5.80

Bookmaker implied17.2%

Model-market gap-2.7 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-15.7%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published29 Jul 2026 · 19:05 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home3.50View odds

Draw2.90View odds

Away2.15View odds

Both teams to score — Yes2.05View odds

Both teams to score — No1.70View odds

Over 2.52.45View odds

Under 2.51.50View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects San Lorenzo (Par) versus Guarani to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-1

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy