Prediction summary
Correct score1-1
Correct score odds6.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultDraw 3.30↗BTTSYes 1.57↗O/UUnder 2.5 2.05↗FT goals2 goals View odds↗Winning marginDraw View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-113.1%
Expected goals1.35 – 1.52Sutjeska / Vitebsk
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.1%
#21-28.8%
#32-17.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 6.3% | 13.1% | 8.8% | 4.5% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate13.1%
Model fair odds7.66
Recorded CS odds6.50
Bookmaker implied15.4%
Model-market gap-2.3 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-15.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Sutjeska versus Vitebsk to finish 1-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy