Prediction summary
Correct score3-2
Correct score odds17.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultWil win 2.20↗BTTSYes 1.44↗O/UOver 2.5 1.50↗FT goals5 goals View odds↗Winning marginWil by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-23.7%
Expected goals1.68 – 1.50Wil / Xamax
Most likely scorelines
#11-112.0%
#22-18.8%
#31-27.9%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 5.5% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 3.9% | 1.5% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.3% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate3.7%
Model fair odds27.09
Recorded CS odds17.00
Bookmaker implied5.9%
Model-market gap-2.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-37.3%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Wil versus Xamax to finish 3-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy