Prediction summary
Correct score1-0
Correct score odds7.50
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultAlloa win 2.00↗BTTSNo 2.00↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.85↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginAlloa by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-09.6%
Expected goals1.54 – 1.14Alloa / East Fife
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.1%
#21-09.6%
#32-19.3%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 13.1% | 6.8% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 8.2% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 4.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate9.6%
Model fair odds10.47
Recorded CS odds7.50
Bookmaker implied13.3%
Model-market gap-3.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-28.4%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Alloa versus East Fife to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy