Prediction summary
Correct score3-1
Correct score odds13.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultChelsea win 2.20↗BTTSYes 1.36↗O/UOver 2.5 1.44↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginChelsea by 2 goals View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-15.1%
Expected goals1.75 – 1.56Chelsea / Tottenham
Most likely scorelines
#11-111.8%
#22-18.7%
#31-27.8%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 4.5% | 11.8% | 7.8% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| 4 | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate5.1%
Model fair odds19.68
Recorded CS odds13.00
Bookmaker implied7.7%
Model-market gap-2.6 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-33.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Chelsea versus Tottenham to finish 3-1. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy