Prediction summary
Correct score1-3
Correct score odds13.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultArsenal win 1.91↗BTTSYes 1.67↗O/UOver 2.5 1.75↗FT goals4 goals View odds↗Winning marginArsenal by 2 goals View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score1-35.2%
Expected goals1.15 – 1.64Girona / Arsenal
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.1%
#21-29.5%
#30-18.6%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 13.1% | 9.5% | 5.2% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate5.2%
Model fair odds19.27
Recorded CS odds13.00
Bookmaker implied7.7%
Model-market gap-2.5 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-32.5%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-3
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Girona versus Arsenal to finish 1-3. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 1-3
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy