Austrian Bundesliga · Saturday, 1 August 2026

Swarovski Tirol v Sturm Graz Correct Score Prediction

Swarovski Tirol

1-0

Sturm Graz

Kick-off: 15:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-0

Correct score odds12.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultSwarovski Tirol win 3.50BTTSNo 2.15O/UUnder 2.5 1.95FT goals1 goal View oddsWinning marginSwarovski Tirol by 1 goal View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-06.0%

Expected goals1.15 – 1.65Swarovski Tirol / Sturm Graz

Most likely scorelines

#11-112.6%

#21-29.5%

#30-19.0%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	9.0%	8.3%	4.5%	1.9%
1	6.0%	12.6%	9.5%	5.2%	2.1%
2	4.0%	6.7%	5.5%	3.0%	1.2%
3	1.6%	2.6%	2.1%	1.2%	0.5%
4	0.4%	0.7%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate6.0%

Model fair odds16.64

Recorded CS odds12.00

Bookmaker implied8.3%

Model-market gap-2.3 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-27.9%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published31 Jul 2026 · 18:39 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-0

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home3.50View odds

Draw3.50View odds

Away1.91View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.62View odds

Both teams to score — No2.15View odds

Over 2.51.80View odds

Under 2.51.95View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Swarovski Tirol versus Sturm Graz to finish 1-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-0

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy