Prediction summary
Correct score3-0
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultCork win 1.36↗BTTSNo 1.85↗O/UOver 2.5 1.67↗FT goals3 goals View odds↗Winning marginCork by 3 goals View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-08.3%
Expected goals2.10 – 0.82Cork / Athlone
Most likely scorelines
#12-011.9%
#21-010.7%
#31-110.0%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 10.7% | 10.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 11.9% | 9.7% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 8.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 4.4% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.3%
Model fair odds11.98
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-2.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.9%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-0
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Cork versus Athlone to finish 3-0. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-0
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy