Prediction summary
Correct score0-1
Correct score odds9.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultVietnam win 2.50↗BTTSNo 2.00↗O/UUnder 2.5 1.83↗FT goals1 goal View odds↗Winning marginVietnam by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score0-18.4%
Expected goals1.32 – 1.30Indonesia / Vietnam
Most likely scorelines
#11-113.6%
#21-08.5%
#30-08.4%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| 1 | 8.5% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate8.4%
Model fair odds11.97
Recorded CS odds9.00
Bookmaker implied11.1%
Model-market gap-2.8 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-24.8%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 0-1
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Indonesia versus Vietnam to finish 0-1. That scoreline implies No for BTTS and Under 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 0-1
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy