Prediction summary
Correct score3-2
Correct score odds15.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultValur win 2.25↗BTTSYes 1.29↗O/UOver 2.5 1.25↗FT goals5 goals View odds↗Winning marginValur by 1 goal View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score3-24.7%
Expected goals1.93 – 1.83Valur / Stjarnan
Most likely scorelines
#11-19.8%
#22-17.9%
#31-27.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 2.9% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.1% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 2.8% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate4.7%
Model fair odds21.42
Recorded CS odds15.00
Bookmaker implied6.7%
Model-market gap-2.0 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-30.0%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 3-2
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Valur versus Stjarnan to finish 3-2. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 3-2
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy