Prediction summary
Correct score2-4
Correct score odds36.00
ConfidenceMedium
Predicted markets
ResultRoma win 1.14↗BTTSYes 2.25↗O/UOver 2.5 1.35↗FT goals6 goals View odds↗Winning marginRoma by 2 goals View odds↗
MODEL ESTIMATE
CSM-1.0Score probability model
Published score2-41.6%
Expected goals0.62 – 2.81Newport / Roma
Most likely scorelines
#10-212.8%
#20-312.0%
#30-18.5%
View score probability matrix
| Home goals ↓ / Away goals → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9% | 8.5% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 8.4% |
| 1 | 1.3% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 5.2% |
| 2 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.
PRICE COMPARISON
CSVI-1.0Model vs market price
Model estimate1.6%
Model fair odds62.24
Recorded CS odds36.00
Bookmaker implied2.8%
Model-market gap-1.2 pp
Price gap vs model fair price-42.2%
This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.
Prediction record
✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 2-4
Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable
Available market odds
Why this score?
The model projects Newport versus Roma to finish 2-4. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.
→ 2-4
How to interpret this prediction
Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.
Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy