ASEAN Football Championship · Tuesday, 4 August 2026

Philippines v Thailand Correct Score Prediction

Philippines

1-3

Thailand

Kick-off: 13:00 GMT

Prediction summary

Correct score1-3

Correct score odds10.00

ConfidenceMedium

Predicted markets

ResultThailand win 1.36BTTSYes 1.80O/UOver 2.5 1.60FT goals4 goals View oddsWinning marginThailand by 2 goals View odds

MODEL ESTIMATE

Score probability model

CSM-1.0

Published score1-37.0%

Expected goals0.84 – 2.14Philippines / Thailand

Most likely scorelines

#10-211.6%

#21-110.5%

#31-29.8%

View score probability matrix

Score probability model
Home goals ↓ / Away goals →	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.4%	9.5%	11.6%	8.3%	4.4%
1	2.9%	10.5%	9.8%	7.0%	3.7%
2	1.8%	3.8%	4.1%	2.9%	1.6%
3	0.5%	1.1%	1.2%	0.8%	0.4%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%

Market-fitted Poisson + Dixon–Coles · Estimated model probabilities are fitted to recorded 1X2 and goal-market prices. They are not yet empirically calibrated probabilities and do not guarantee an outcome.

PRICE COMPARISON

Model vs market price

CSVI-1.0

Model estimate7.0%

Model fair odds14.33

Recorded CS odds10.00

Bookmaker implied10.0%

Model-market gap-3.0 pp

Price gap vs model fair price-30.2%

This is a mathematical comparison between the uncalibrated CSM-1.0 estimate and the recorded price. It is not a calibrated expected-value claim, guarantee or betting recommendation.

Prediction record

Published3 Aug 2026 · 16:05 GMT+0100

✓ Original forecast preserved · Original prediction: 1-3

Legacy / unverifiablePublication timing unavailable

Available market odds

Home7.00View odds

Draw4.20View odds

Away1.36View odds

Both teams to score — Yes1.80View odds

Both teams to score — No1.85View odds

Over 2.51.60View odds

Under 2.52.15View odds

View this match at bookmaker

Why this score?

The model projects Philippines versus Thailand to finish 1-3. That scoreline implies Yes for BTTS and Over 2.5 for the goals market. Confidence is recorded as Medium; this is a model output, not a guarantee. Before kick-off, check team news, line-ups and the live bookmaker price because circumstances and odds can change.

→ 1-3

How to interpret this prediction

Correct score is a high-variance market. The projected score is a forecast, not a certainty. The companion markets below are derived consistently from the same projected scoreline.

Prediction methodology · Results methodology · Editorial policy